About US - EV Roadmap Conference

About US - EV Roadmap Conference

The CATARC Story-Professional Excellence !  As the only technical committee in China auto industry and a technical support institution of national gov...

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The CATARC Story-Professional Excellence !  As the only technical committee in China auto industry and a technical support institution of national government authorities, China Automotive Technology & Research Center (CATARC) is now subject to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. !  CATARC assists : "  Monthly information service "  Policy studies "  Consumer behavior investigation

About US

CATARC is headquartered in Tianjin

"  Branches are distributed in Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Ningbo and Yancheng, etc.

Bejing

Tianjin

"  So far, CATARC has been staffed with 4500 employees, including 1,210 professional and technical personals.

Yancheng Wuhan

Shanghai Ningbo

2

Contents Contents

1. General review of China's NEV market

2. China's NEV market in 2016

3. China's NEV market since 2017

4. Future prospect of China's NEV market

Policy Research Center

Contents

Policy Research Center

I. General overview of China's NEV market

1.  General situation of China's NEV market in 2010-2016 2.  General situation of all models in 2010-2016 3.  Market situation of main NEV enterprises in 2010-2016

4

Policy Research Center

1.1 General situation of China's NEV market in 2010-2016

Sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles (10000) 1.812%

Sales volume of pure electric vehicles (10000) Market share (%) 1.346%

9.9

33.1 in total 8.36

40.9 0.318%

0.033% 0.06 0.56

0.066% 0.14 1.14

0.080% 0.30 1.46

2.97

0.003% 0.04 0.01 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

4.50

Sales volume of new energy vehicle in 2010-2016 Data sources: CAAM

24.75

2015

2016

50.7 in total

Policy Research Center

1.2 General situation of all models of NEV market in 2010-2016

SPV 11% Bus 27%

[类 名 称] [值] Passenger car 62%

Market distribution of NEPVs, passenger cars and SPVs

BEV; 78%

Market distribution of NEVs with different power types

Policy Research Center

1.3 Market situation of main NEV enterprises in 2010-2016

SPV enterprise, 142

Passenger car enterprise, 69

Bus enterprise, 116

Distribution of NEV manufacture enterprises by the end of 2016

Unit: pcs

Contents

Policy Research Center

II. China's NEV market analysis in 2016

1. 

General situation

2. 

The situation of all models

3. 

Market situation of Main NEV enterprises

4. 

China's NEV sales area in 2016

5. 

Import of NEV in 2016

8

Policy Research Center

2.1 General situation of China's NEV market in 2016 #  The sales volume of NEV has reached 507,000 in 2016, which is increased by 53% compared with 2015.

#  The sales volume of EV is 409,000, a 65.1% increase compared with 2015; the sales volume of PHEV is 99,000, a 17.1% increase compared with 2015. #  The annual sales volume of NEV is 1.812% of the annual sales volume of conventional fuel vehicle.

Sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles (10000) 1.812%

Sales volume of pure electric vehicles (10000) Market share (%) 1.346%

9.9

33.1 in total 8.36 40.9 0.318%

0.003% 0.04 0.01

0.033% 0.06 0.56

0.066% 0.14 1.14

0.080% 0.30 1.46

2.97

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, excluding plumbic acid.

24.75

4.50

Sales volume of NEV in 2010-2016

2015

2016

50.7 in total

Policy Research Center

2.2 The situation of all models in 2016 #  Passenger vehicles was 320,000, which accounts for 62%. #  Bus was 130,000 , which accounts for 26%. #  SPV was 60,000 , which accounts for 12%.

Special vehicle 12%

Passenger vehicle (2015)

Bus (2015)

Special-purpose vehicle (2015)

Passenger vehicle (2016)

Bus (2016)

Special-purpose vehicle (2016)

Unit: vehicle

Bus 26%

Passenger vehicles 62%

9657 11196

34151

24213

22900

17380

1452

12521

4672

8171

31053

29561

10592

7780

31888

32730

40917

37924

Data source: CATARC

Comparison of different types of China's NEV output in 2015-2016

Dec.

Nov.

Oct.

Sep.

Aug.

Jul.

Jun.

May

Apr.

Mar.

6400

Feb.

Jan.

8379

3648

2658

39780

27288

Distribution of different types of accumulative output in 2016

10

Policy Research Center

2.3 Market situation of Main NEPVs enterprises #  In 2016, the total sales volume of the first five enterprises for NEPVs was 208,000, which accounts for 69% of the total sales volume of NEPVs. #  Tang, Qin and pure electric e6 and e5 are dominant. They account for 33%, 24%, 17% and 14% respectively.

BEV

PHEV 35131

BYD BAIC

45416

43621

ZOTYE 36365 Automobi Geely 27691 Automobi Chery 16804 3217 Automobi SAIC 1490 17337 JAC

18441

New Ocean Jiangling

17644 14576

Chang’an 5096 Automobi

Top 10 enterprises evaluated by sales volume of NEPVs in 2016 Data source: CATARC

Unit: vehicle

Unit: vehicle

26472

Tang

18941

Qin Emgrand EV EU260

16933 16639 16033

Chery eQ ZOTYE Yun 100 ROEWE e550 ZOTYE E200 e6 e5

15252 14232 14173 13800 11440

Top 10 models evaluated by sales volume of NEPVs in 2016.

Policy Research Center

2.3 Market situation of Main Bus enterprises #  # 

In 2016, the total sales volume of top 10 enterprises for new-energy buses was 76,000, which is 67% in the new-energy bus market. New-energy buses focus on 6-12 m (included) that accounts for 99%. 8-10 m (included) and 10-12m (included) have large proportion.

BEV

PHEV 16866

Yutong Zhongtong

8182

Zhuhai Guangtong Ankai Hunan CSR Times King Long United

5287

2422

6<L≤8m; 16%

9795

BYD Nanjing Golden Xiamen Golden Beiqi Futon

Unit: vehicle

6572 4663

821

3609 1663 4600

10<L≤12m; 43% 8<L≤10m; 41%

3772 603 2293 1181 1756 1710

Data source: CATARC Top ten enterprises for new-energy buses evaluated by sales volume in 2016

Distribution of new-energy bus length in 2016

12

Policy Research Center

2.3 Market situation of Main NESVs enterprises #  In 2016, the sales volume of top 10 New-energy special-purpose vehicles enterprises was 91%. #  New-energy special-purpose vehicles focus on trucks and account for 94%.

Unit: vehicle 9292

Dongfeng Automobile 5644

Dayun Motorcycle 1510

Chongqing Chang’an Hebei Chang’an

Sanitation vehicles 2%

Other specialpurpose vehicles 4%

921

Aoxin New Energy

640

Ganzhou Automotive Rebuilding Co., Ltd.

537

Chongqing Ruichi Automobile

510

GuohongAutomobile

443

Jihai New Energy

423

Shasnxi Automotive

402

Truck 94%

Data source: CATARC Top ten enterprises for new-energy trucks evaluated by sales volume in 2016

Distribution of NESVs in 2016

13

Policy Research Center

2.4 General situation of China's NEPV market in 2016 #  NEPVs mainly focus on cities with policy of purchase limitation;

#  In 2016, the sales volume in Beijing was 58000, which accounts for 19%; Shanghai and Guangdong is 14% and 13% respectively. Unit: vehicle

Distribution in main areas evaluated by sales volume of NEPVs in 2016 58312

42322

40263

31494

20275

19468

19273

13476

8673

7766

Beijing

Shanghai

Guangdong

Shandong

Tianjin

Zhejiang

Shanxi

Anhui

Hunan

Jinagxi

Heilongjiang

Jilin Sinkiang

Liaoning Gansu

Inner Mongolia

Beijing

19273 58312 20275

Tianjin Hebei

Ningxia Qinghai

Shanxi

Shaanxi

Henan

13476

Jiangsu

Tibet Anhui

Shanghai

Hubei

Sichuan, Chongqing

31494

Shandong

Zhejiang

42322

Jiangxi Hunan Guizhou

Fujian

Yunnan

Data source: CATARC Sales volume of NEPVs in main areas in 2016

Guangxi

Guangdong Shenzhen

Hainan

19468 7766 8673 40263

Policy Research Center

2.5 Import of China's NEV in 2016 #  # 

The import of NEV has been increased year by year and the import volume reached 14,000 in 2016. TESLA MODEL S and BMW i3 EV ranked the first and second by evaluation of import volume. BEV

3

11 25

2013

2014

34 557 2015

Monthly! TESLA MODEL S BMW i3 pure electric Others Total of pure electric vehicles Volkswagen GOLF PHEV BMW i3 plug-in BMW i8 X5 xDrive40e KT01 BMW 740Le Mercedes-Ben Chevrolet Volt Volvo XC90 BMW X5 Total for plug-in vehicles Total

85

PHEV

Unit: vehicle

31 850

739

39 705

26 888

950

May

Jun.

Jul.

4238

61 1714

57 1169

67 640

35 889

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

125 137

15 389

Jan. 2016

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

Jan. 66

Feb. 383

Mar. 846

Apr. 121

May 550

Jun. 838

Jul. 344

Aug. 1701

Sep. 1147

Oct. 624

Nov. 882

Dec. 4172

70

6

4

7

155

50

606

13

21

14

4

61

1

2

3

5

640

889

4238

8

16

22 128

Aug.

1 137

90 33

389

2 13

2

850

4 20

128

20 2

705

21 17

7

888

Dec.

950

1714

1169

678

3

1

15 9

2 12

5 3

1 2

4

3

1 6

2

45

46

40

44

14

33

2 1 1

13

17

9

2

26 2

2

1

1

1 125

15

31

22

39

26

739

61

57

67

35

85

262

404

881

150

744

914

1689

1775

1226

707

924

4323

Data source: CATARC

15

Contents

Policy Research Center

III. China's NEV market in 2017

1. 

General situation of NEV market in January-April

2. 

Market situation of NEPV in January-April

3. 

Market situation of Bus in January-April

4. 

Market situation of NESVs in January-April 2017

5. 

Distribution of market areas in January-April 2017

16

Policy Research Center

3.1 General situation of China's NEV market in January-April 2017

# January-April: the accumulative output of NEV is 82000, with 1.14% increase. The growth is reduced compared with 2016.

2016年

120000

2017年

100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0

1月 Jan. 2016 2016年 15577 2017 2017年

4310

2月 Feb.

3月 Mar.

4月 Apr.

5月 May

6月 Jun.

7月 Jul.

8月 Aug.

9月 Sep.

10月 Oct.

11月 Nov.

12月 Dec.

8055

22995

34426

32876

46078

36259

38252

43596

42200

83782

112121

9572

33114

34984

Comparison of monthly output of China's NEV in 2016-2017 Data source: CATARC Note: excluding lead-acid cell.

Unit: vehicle

Policy Research Center

3.2 Market situation of China's NEPVs in January-April 2017 #  January-April: the accumulative output of NEPVs is about 75500, with 27.49% YoY increase.

2016年

2017年

45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0

1月 Jan.

2月 Feb.

3月 Mar.

4月 Apr.

5月 May

2016年

12521

6400

17380

22900

24213

2017年

3791

9105

30691

31886

6月 Jun.

7月 Jul.

8月 Aug.

9月 Sep.

34151

31053

29561

31888

10月 Oct.

11月 Nov.

12月 Dec.

32730

40917

37924

Comparison of monthly output of China's NEPVs in 2016-2017 Unit: vehicle Data source: CATARC Note: excluding lead-acid cell.

Policy Research Center

Policy Research Center

3.3 Market situation of China's buses in January-April 2017 #  Jan.-Apr.: The output of new-energy buses is 3420, with 81.9% decrease 2016年 2016

45000

2017年 2017

40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0

1月 Jan.

2月 Feb.

3月 Mar.

4月 Apr.

5月 May

6月 Jun.

7月 Jul.

8月 Aug.

9月 Sep.

10月 Oct.

11月 Nov.

12月 Dec.

2016年 2016

2658

1452

3648

11196

8379

9657

4672

8171

10592

7780

27288

39780

2017 2017年

228

303

1702

1187

Monthly output of new-energy buses in 2016-2017 Data source: CATARC

Note: excluding lead-acid cell.

Unit: vehicle

Policy Research Center

3.3 Market situation of China's buses in January-April 2017 # 

Enterprise situation: in January-April 2017, the total output of new-energy buses from the top 10 manufacturers is 3230, which accounts for 94.4%. The production concentration is high. PHEV 插电式

BEV 纯电动

673

宇通客车 Yutong Bus 482

中通客车 Zhongtong Bus

48

344

北汽福田 Beiqi Futon 丹东黄海 DandongHuanghai

276

扬子江 Bus

251

南车时代 Yangtze

193

珠海广通 CSR Times

205

Zhuhai 安凯客车 Guangtong

191

258

Above 12m, 652, 19%

6m ~8m, Below 6m, 277, 8% 3, 0%

56 8m~10m, 873, 26%

2

52

10m~12m, 1615, 47%

厦门金旅 Ankai Bus 97 52 龙华汽车 Xiamen Jinlv 50 Top 10 enterprises for new-energy buses Longhua Bus

evaluated by output in January-April 2017

Data source: CATARC

Note: excluding lead-acid cell.

Distribution of new-energy length-based bus output in January-April 2017 Unit: vehicle 21

Policy Research Center

3.4 Market situation of China's NESVs in January-April 2017

# 

January-April: the output of special NEVs is 3087, with 3.77 YoY increase. 2016年 2016

2017年 2017

40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0

1月 Jan.

2月 Feb.

3月 Mar.

4月 Apr.

5月 May

6月 Jun.

7月 Jul.

8月 Aug.

9月 Sep.

10月 Oct.

11月 Nov.

12月 Dec.

2016年 2016

398

203

1967

330

284

2270

534

520

1116

1690

15577

34417

2017 2017年

291

164

721

1911

Monthly output of special NEVs in 2016-2017

Unit: vehicle

Data source: CATARC

Note: excluding lead-acid cell. 22

Policy Research Center

Policy Research Center

3.5 Distribution of market areas for China's NEV January-April 2017

# 

Main sales areas of NEVs January-April 2017, Beijing takes the lead for sales, followed by Guangdong and Shanghai.

# 

PHEV is concentrated in Shanghai, Guangdong and Liaoning markets;

# 

BEV is dominant in Beijing.

14000

EV

12264

PHEV

12000 10000 8000

6411

5827

6000 2940

4000

2528

2368

2000

1997

0

Beijing 北京市

PHEV EV

Guangdong 广东省 Shanghai 上海市

浙江省 Shandong 山东省 天津市 Zhejiang Tianjin

Henan 河南省

1613

1474

1058

Inner 内蒙古 Jiangsu Mongolia Liaoning 江苏省 辽宁省 自治区

103

1424

5476

613

239

454

96

307

80

1052

12161

4987

351

2327

2289

1914

1901

1306

1394

6

Distribution of main sales areas of NEVs in January-April 2017 Unit: vehicle Data source: data from motor vehicle insurance Note: excluding lead-acid cell.

24

Contents

Policy Research Center

IV. Future market prediction of China's NEV

1.  Policy trend of China's NEV 2.  Market prediction of China's NEV

25

Policy Research Center

4.1 Future policy trend of NEV Supportive policy and means for NEV- combination of “addition” and “subtraction” Control development of conventional fuel vehicle

Conventi onal fuel vehicle

Control the consumer buying

Encourage the consumer buying

Increase the purchase cost

Reduce the purchase cost

Increase vehicle usage cost

Reduce vehicle usage cost

Control vehicle application

Encourage vehicle application

Increase possession cost

Reduce possession cost

Foster NEVmarket

NEV

26

Policy Research Center

4.1 Future policy trend prediction of NEV

Policy becomes strict obviously-the requirements of NEV investment, admittance, subsidy and battery become strict, industrialmanagement is strengthened to support the better and stronger.

Invest ment

Admittanc e

Subsid y

Battery

27

4.1Charging Futurepilepolicy prediction 1.11 industrytrend of new energy vehicle ! of

Policy Research Center

NEV

China has become one of the countries with the most charging infrastructure putting into operation in the world Heilongjiang

State Grid Corporation of China

Jilin Sinkiang

Liaoning Gansu

Inner Mongolia

Beijing Tianjin Hebei

Ningxia Qinghai

Shanxi

(Service area of State Grid) Shaanxi

Shandong

Henan

Jiangsu

Tibet Anhui

#  By the end of 2016: Total charging piles are 150,000. #  By the end of 2017: Total charging piles will be 700,000.

Shanghai

Hubei

Sichuan, Chongqing

Hunan Guizhou Yunnan Guangxi

.

Zhejiang Jiangxi Fujian

Guangdong

(Service area of China Southern Power Shenzhen Grid) Hainan

China Southern Power Grid

Potevio Energy

New

28

Policy Research Center

4.2 Market prediction of NEV market

Prediction of annual sales volume of NEV in 2017 Vehicle type

Power type

Sales volume in 2017 (10000 vehicles)

Year-on-year growth (%)

Passenger vehicles

BEV

35.2

42%

PHEV

10.1

35%

BEV

10.2

-11%

PHEV

2.3

19%

BEV

13.3

125%

71.1

36%

Bus

special-purpose vehicle Total

29

Policy Research Center

4.2 Market prediction of NEV market

$  The sales volume of NEVs will reach 2 million in 2020. $  The accumulative sales volume will be more than 5 million. $  The sales volume of NEV account for more than 20% of conventional vehicle in 2025.

Year

2020

2025

2030

Annual sales volume (10000)

3000

3500

3800

Proportions of EV and PHEV (10000)

7%~10%

15%~20%

40%~50%

Annual sales of EV and PHEV (10000)

210~300

525~700

1520~1900

Fuel cell cars (10000)

10000

100000

One million

NEV volume (10000)

More than 5 million

More than 20 million

More than 80 million

30

Policy Research Center

Thank you ! Yao zhanhui Tel:022-84379397 Phone:13752727729 Email:[email protected]