Arctic Opportunities and Challenges - High North Dialogue

Arctic Opportunities and Challenges - High North Dialogue

Arctic Opportunities and Challenges Laurence C. Smith Professor and Chair, Department of Geography University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) Visitin...

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Arctic Opportunities and Challenges Laurence C. Smith Professor and Chair, Department of Geography University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) Visiting Professor University of Nordland

[email protected] High North Dialogue 2015, University of Nordland, Bodø, Norway, 19 March 2015

World Population (Billions)

global force 1: demographics 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950

population

Low variant Medium variant

1975

2000

2025

2050

year (Source: United Nations Population Division)

global force 1: demographics migration

global force 1: demographics urbanization

global force 2: natural resource demand

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

global force 2: natural resource demand

World consumption of petroleum liquids (million bbl/day)

140

120

low oil price high oil price

100

80

60

40

20

0

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

global force 2: natural resource demand 140

World consumption of petroleum liquids (million bbl/day)

low oil price 120

100

80

60

40

20

0

high oil price

global force 3: globalisation

global force 3: globalisation

Permanent Observers France Germany The Netherlands Poland Spain United Kingdom China (2013) India (2013) Italy (2013) Japan (2013) South Korea (2013) Singapore (2013)

Session 6 after lunch: “Asia’s Arctic Engagement”

global force 4: rising greenhouse gas emissions

(from The New North / The World in 2050)

(courtesy J. Rasmussen)

Session 8 this afternoon: “Fast-Changing High North”

(courtesy J. Rasmussen)

(Source: National Snow & Ice Data Center)

Septembers 2006-2015 red lines= Polar Class 6 (e.g. commercial icebreaking ships) blue lines= common openwater ships

(source: Smith and Stephenson, PNAS, 2013)

Septembers 2040-2059 red lines= Polar Class 6 (e.g. commercial icebreaking ships) blue lines= common openwater ships

(source: Smith and Stephenson, PNAS, 2013)

(source: The New North / The World in 2050)

(source: The New North / The World in 2050)

(Port of Churchill)

(The Nordic Barents, 2010)

(The Nordic Barents, 2010)

Yamal LNG refinery and port at Sabetta, (2017)

U.S. Geological Survey CARA Assessments Estimate that 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas may be in the “There is simply no comparable historicalin under 500 Arctic, mostly offshore example of ameters saltwaterof space with such water ambiguous ownership, such a dramatically mutating seascape, and such extraordinary economic promise. Without U.S. leadership…the region could erupt in an armed mad dash for its resources.”

(Gautier et al., 2008, 2009)

(September 2011)

Session 7 this afternoon: “Oil and Gas Resources”

Red: n/a Polar Class 6 Green: std dev Summer accessible days (JASO average) Summer (JASO) Blue: average Average accessible days Standard deviation 2011-2030 PC6, 2011-2030, RCP 6.0 PC6, 2011-2030, RCP 6.0 RCP 6.0

Average

0

High avg/ low std dev

Low avg/ high std dev

Low avg/ low std dev

123 50

55 123

37 82

Standard Deviation

41 18

00

0

High avg/ high std dev

(Scott Stephenson, U. Connecticut)

Accessible days per year

Mean annual 2013-2027 navigation season for Polar Class 3, open water ships (RCP 6.0) PC3

Barents

Kara

Laptev Longitude East

high avg/ low stdev high avg/ high stdev low avg/ high stdev low avg/

East Siberian

open water

(Stephenson et al., 2013)

Chukchi Sea

Barents Sea

Kara Sea Laptev Sea

East Siberian Sea

Challenge for large vessels: bathymetry/ice chokepoint around New Siberian Islands

Barents Sea

Chukchi Sea

> 20,000 dwt 1

East Siberian Sea

Kara Sea 2 Laptev Sea

5

3 4

r2 = .57

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Kara Gate strait (~10-40 m) Vilkitsky Strait (100-200 m) Sannikov Strait (13 m) Dmitry Laptev Strait (6.7 m) Long Strait (33 m)

Session 5 (next): “Security in the High North”

Challenge: economics, e.g. Northern Sea Route transit fees (perhaps more impactful on shipping than climate change?)

(Scale bar reflects emissions of black carbon and sulfate aerosols, as a function of ship traffic)

(Modeling by S. Stephenson, UCLA; slide courtesy A. Tingstad, RAND Corp.)

Challenge: Environmental safeguards

U.S. National Academy of Sciences (2014)

Challenge: Environmental safeguards

… and inadequate science Some specific scientific deficiencies:

-

Spatial and temporal distribution and abundances of fishes, birds, mammals

-

Subsistence and cultural use of living marine resources

-

Identification and monitoring of biologically significant areas

-

Rates of change for key species

-

Sensitivity of key species to hydrocarbons

-

High-resolution bathymetric mapping

-

Measurements of ice cover, thickness, and distribution

RECOMMENDATION: A comprehensive, collaborative, long-term Arctic oil spill research and development program

U.S. National Academy of Sciences (2014)

Challenge: Environmental safeguards

Canada oil / tar sands (courtesy D. Dodge)

Challenge: Detrimental climate change impacts

Challenge: Detrimental climate change impacts

(courtesy V. Romanovsky)

Challenge: Detrimental climate change impacts

Canada’s Tibbitt-Contwoyto winter road as seen from space

(Source: Mia Bennett, UCLA)

Arctic Opportunities… Long-term global trends in demographics, resource demand, globalisation, and climate change, will create new opportunities for:

shipping infrastructure hydrocarbons minerals technology fisheries tourism collaborative governance

(image courtesy L. Brigham)

Arctic Opportunities… Long-term global trends in demographics, resource demand, globalisation, and climate change, will create new opportunities for:

shipping infrastructure hydrocarbons minerals technology fisheries tourism collaborative governance

(image courtesy L. Brigham)

…and Challenges

low oil prices /shale gas physical and economic chokepoints in the NSR environmental protection disaster response science engaging local communities international cooperation

Chair: Jonas Gahr Store, member Norwegian Parliament, Chair of Labour Party Vice Chair: Laurence C. Smith, Professor and Chair, UCLA Department of Geography Anne-Marie Brady, Editor-in-Chief, The Polar Journal Lawson Brigham, Distinguished Professor of Geography & Arctic Policy, U. Alaska Fairbanks Heather Conley, Senior VP, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Michael Daly, Executive Vice-President, Exploration, BP Plc Aleqa Hammond, Prime Minister of Greenland Rúni M. Hansen, Vice President, Statoil Susan Harper, Director General, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development of Canada Sturla Henriksen, CEO, Norwegian Shipowners' Association Richard Herbert, Chief Operating Officer, Exploration BP Plc Yoko Kamikawa , Vice-Minister Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan Scott Minerd, CIO, Guggenheim Partners LLC Kumi Naidoo, Executive Director, Greenpeace International Anne Pickard, Executive VP, Arctic Royal Dutch Shell Theodore Roosevelt IV, Chairman, Cleantech Initiative, Barclays Cho Tae-Yul, Foreign Affairs Ministry, Republic of Korea Mead Treadwell, Lieutenant Governor of Alaska Felix Tschudi, Chairman of the Board and Owner, Tschudi Shipping Company AS Artem Volynets, CEO, Amur Capital Group Jan-Gunnar Winther, Director, Norwegian Polar Institute Wang Yuhang, Executive Vice President, China Ocean Shipping Group (COSCO) Council Manager: Victoria Crawford, World Economic Forum

WEF Global Agenda Council on the Arctic (2014-2016)

Chair: Jonas Gahr Store, member Norwegian Parliament, Chair of Labour Party

Vice Chair: Laurence C. Smith, Professor and Chair, UCLA Department of Geography Anne-Marie Brady, Editor-in-Chief, The Polar Journal Lawson Brigham, Distinguished Professor of Geography & Arctic Policy, U. Alaska Fairbanks

Heather Conley, Senior VP, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Michael Daly, Executive Vice-President, Exploration, BP Plc Aleqa Hammond, Prime Minister of Greenland

Rúni M. Hansen, Vice President, Statoil Susan Harper, Director General, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development of Canada Sturla Henriksen, CEO, Norwegian Shipowners' Association Richard Herbert, Chief Operating Officer, Exploration BP Plc Yoko Kamikawa , Vice-Minister Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan Scott Minerd, CIO, Guggenheim Partners LLC Kumi Naidoo, Executive Director, Greenpeace International Anne Pickard, Executive VP, Arctic Royal Dutch Shell Theodore Roosevelt IV, Chairman, Cleantech Initiative, Barclays Cho Tae-Yul, Foreign Affairs Ministry, Republic of Korea Mead Treadwell, Lieutenant Governor of Alaska

Felix Tschudi, Chairman of the Board and Owner, Tschudi Shipping Company AS Artem Volynets, CEO, Amur Capital Group

Jan-Gunnar Winther, Director, Norwegian Polar Institute Wang Yuhang, Executive Vice President, China Ocean Shipping Group (COSCO) Council Manager: Victoria Crawford, World Economic Forum

WEF Global Agenda Council on the Arctic (2014-2016)

BACKUP SLIDES

Five pervasive myths surrounding the Arctic Myth #1: The Arctic is an uninhabited, unclaimed frontier with no regulation or governance Myth #2: The region's natural resource wealth is readily available for development Myth #3: The Arctic will be immediately accessible as sea ice continues to disappear

Myth #4: The Arctic is tense with geopolitical disputes, and the next flashpoint for conflict Myth #5: Climate changes in the Arctic are solely of local and regional importance

Recommendation 1: The Arctic needs Protection Promotion of sustainable practices in a delicate region facing growing development pressures Protection of ecosystems and livelihoods, with a goal of empowering local populations Resolution of some lingering (and mostly minor) governance disputes

Recommendation 2: The Arctic needs Investment Pressing needs for critical infrastructure, cross-border collaboration and investment, and attraction of permanent talent

Proposed: A “Sustainable Arctic Investment Vehicle” (cross-border financing institution), perhaps modeled after one of the international development banks

Recommendation 3: The Arctic needs Safety Pressing needs to ensure the security of life, property, and environment – especially at sea Examples include improved and/or harmonized charting, regulations and communications

Mandatory IMO Polar Code

Recommendation 4: The Arctic needs Science The Arctic remains one of the world’s least studied, least explored regions on Earth Many scientific unknowns regarding oceanography, geology, meteorology, ecosystems, and the shrinking cryosphere

Commercial needs in natural resources, applied science, and engineering

Misperceptions of the Arctic

Ca. 1895

2014