ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 INTERNATIONAL

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 INTERNATIONAL

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY CONSERVATION CODE WITH HAWAII AMENDMENTS Prepared for the Department of Business, Economic ...

244KB Sizes 0 Downloads 3 Views

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY CONSERVATION CODE WITH HAWAII AMENDMENTS

Prepared for the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism State of Hawaii

May 2016 Prepared by The Cadmus Group, Inc.

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 IECC

This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DEEE0003928/0014. This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The view and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.

Task Order 1E#

2

September 2015

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 IECC

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1

Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 5

2

Residential Construction Forecast ........................................................................................................ 5

3

Nonresidential Construction Forecast .................................................................................................. 7

4

Residential Energy Impact Forecast ...................................................................................................... 7

5

Nonresidential Energy Impact Forecast ................................................................................................ 9

6

Net Energy Impact Forecast .................................................................................................................. 9

TABLES Table 1 Residential Construction History – Number of Dwelling Units ........................................................ 6 Table 2 Nonresidential Construction Forecast, Square Feet of Floor Area1 ................................................. 7 Table 3 Residential Energy Savings Forecast ................................................................................................ 8 Table 4 Nonresidential Energy Savings Forecast .......................................................................................... 9 Table 5 Combined Residential and Nonresidential Energy Forecast ............................................................ 9

FIGURES Figure 1 Residential Construction Forecast, Units per Year......................................................................... 6 Figure 2 Residential Construction Forecast, Cumulative Number of Units .................................................. 7

Task Order 1E#

3

September 2015

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 IECC

THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK

Task Order 1E#

4

September 2015

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 IECC

1 INTRODUCTION The following report includes the construction and energy impact forecasts for residential and nonresidential projects in the years 2016, 2026, 2030 and 2036 based on the adoption of the 2015 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) in the state of Hawaii with proposed amendments. Construction forecasts were completed using data from local building departments, Dodge data and construction starts collected previously by Kolderup Consulting. The energy impact estimates compare the 2015 IECC to both the 2006 Hawaii Energy Code for residential buildings and to ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2004 for commercial buildings. The methodology used to determine the energy savings forecasts was based on the methodology and data used by Kolderup Consulting included in the report Hawaii Building Energy Code Stringency Assessment and Savings Forecast.1

2 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION FORECAST The forecast for residential construction is based on construction activity of the last 10 years (Table 1). Construction start data for 2005 to 2011 was based on Kolderup residential construction data derived from Dodge data. Estimated residential construction starts for 2012 to 2015 were based on building permit data from Oahu County. Permit activity was estimated for Hawaii, Kauai, Molokai and Lanai by extrapolating the Oahu permit data using population weighting for each island. The data shows a ten-year average of 2,813 single-family homes per year and 1,420 apartment units per year (for multi-family buildings 3-stories and less). The data also shows a significant decline in construction since 2005 for both single-family and multi-family dwelling units which includes the years impacted by the recession.

Kolderup Consulting. "Hawaii Building Energy Code Stringency Assessment and Savings Forecast." (2012). 1 Nov. 2014. .

1

Task Order 1E#

5

September 2015

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 IECC

Table 1 Residential Construction History – Number of Dwelling Units

1

Year

Single Family1, 2

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122 2013 2014 2015 5-yr Average 10-yr Average

6413 5191 4370 2653 2145 1702 1504 1377 1565 1209 1307 1471 2813

Multi-family Units1,2,3 2490 1126 1342 987 381 1513 1100 1403 2147 986 3217 1771 1420

Dodge data provided by Mary Blewitt, Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism

2

Cumulative building permit data from 2012 to 2015 estimated based on Oahu Building Permit data

3

Multi-family data is for buildings 3-story and less in height

The residential construction forecast used in this analysis is illustrated in Figure 1 and Figure 2. The construction activity for 2016 is assumed to be equal to the 5-year average, which is 1,471 single-family units per year and 1,771 apartment units per year. For single-family dwelling units, the activity is assumed to increase until 2018 when it would reach the 10-year average. For multi-family units, the activity is assumed to decrease until 2018 when it would reach the 10-year average (Kolderup). Figure 1 Residential Construction Forecast, Units per Year

Number of New Units Per Year

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year Single-Family

Task Order 1E#

6

Multi-family Units

September 2015

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 IECC

Figure 2 Residential Construction Forecast, Cumulative Number of Units

Number of Units Per Year

70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year Single Family

Multi-Family Units

3 NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION FORECAST Nonresidential construction for 2016 is estimated to include 430,000 square feet per year of hotels and 1.49 million square feet per year of other nonresidential buildings (Kolderup). This rough estimate is based on Dodge data for permit value and the assumption that the average permit value is $200 per square foot of floor area. Multi-family buildings 4-stories and greater are included in the nonresidential building category. The cumulative construction forecasts for 2016, 2026, 2030 and 2036 are summarized in Table 2. Table 2 Nonresidential Construction Forecast, Square Feet of Floor Area1

Occupancy Hotels Other Nonresidential Total 1

Year 2016 430,000 1,490,000 1,920,000

2026 4,300,000 14,900,000 19,200,000

2030 6,020,000 20,860,000 26,880,000

2036 8,600,000 29,800,000 38,400,000

Dodge data provided by Mary Blewitt, Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism

4 RESIDENTIAL ENERGY IMPACT FORECAST The estimated impact of the 2015 IECC with Hawaii amendments on residential energy is an energy savings of 2,048 MWh/yr in 2016 (year 1 representing the first year that the energy code would be adopted) compared to the 2006 IECC. The cumulative total increases to 368,723 MWh/yr in 2026 (year 10); 686,836 MWh/yr in 2030; and 1,316,924 MWh/yr in 2036 (year 20). The cumulative savings estimate Task Order 1E#

7

September 2015

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 IECC

assumes that the energy saved by a building constructed in 2016 will save an equal quantity of energy for each year of the study (20 years). The cumulative energy savings for a 20 year analysis (ending in 2036) is the annual energy savings for houses built in 2016 multiplied by the number of years that the homes are in the analysis (20). The savings for a 2016 house is then added to the cumulative savings for houses constructed in 2017 which are only in the analysis for 19 years, and then to houses built in 2018 (18 years), etc. The process continues until all of the savings for houses built within the 20 period have been totaled. Calculations are summarized in Table 3. These estimates are based on the residential construction forecast described on pages 5 and 6 and the residential energy savings estimates detailed in Section 7 of the report Analysis and Proposal of Hawaii Amendments to the 2015 International Energy Conservation Code. 2 The forecast for energy impact was determined as follows: The cumulative energy savings estimates were determined using EnergyPlus simulations for single-family dwelling units that were assumed to be fully air-conditioned and that complied with the requirements of the 2015 IECC with Hawaii amendments. Energy savings estimates for semi-conditioned buildings were determined assuming that the dwelling unit complied with the Tropical Zone requirements in the 2015 IECC with Hawaii amendments. •





The typical single-family home size is assumed to be 1,700 ft2 rather than the 2,400 ft2 house used in the analysis (Kolderup). The impact is assumed to reduce proportionately from 2,247 kWh/yr to 1,738 kWh/yr. As a rough estimate, 50% of all new homes statewide have air-conditioning and 50% of all new homes either have no air-conditioning or are semi-conditioned. This estimate is based on a Hawaiian Electric Companies (HECO) survey from 2014. The energy savings for apartment units is assumed to be 50% of the value calculated for singlefamily homes equal to 869 kWh/yr per apartment unit (Kolderup). Table 3 Residential Energy Savings Forecast

Occupancy

1

Year

Single-Family

# Units kWh/yr-unit MWh/yr

2016 1,471 1,738 1,279

2026 28,878 1,738 283,178

2030 40,130 1,738 532,830

2036 57,008 1,738 1,053,977

Apartment1

# Units kWh/yr-unit MWh/yr

1,771 869 769

16,146 869 85,545

21,826 869 154,006

30,346 869 262,947

Total

# Units MWh/yr

3,242 2,048

45,024 368,723

61,956 686,836

87,354 1,316,924

Apartments are 3-stories and less

Britt/Makela Group, Inc. “Analyses and Proposal of Hawaii Amendments to the 2015 International Energy Conservation Code.” (2014).

2

Task Order 1E#

8

September 2015

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 IECC

5 NONRESIDENTIAL ENERGY IMPACT FORECAST The cumulative energy savings estimates were determined for 5 nonresidential occupancy types common to Hawaii construction using EnergyPlus simulations. The estimated savings for nonresidential buildings under the 2015 IECC with Hawaii amendments is 10,914 MWh/yr compared to ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2004. The cumulative energy savings increases to 714,867 MWh/yr in 2016 (10 years); 1,304,223 MWh/yr in 2030; and 3,385,815 MWh/yr in 2036 (20 years). Cumulative savings were determined using the same methodology as was used for residential. The savings estimates are summarized in Table 4. This estimate combines construction forecast data described on page 7 with the energy savings estimate detailed in Section 7 of the report Analysis and Proposal of Hawaii Amendments to the 2015 International Energy Conservation Code. Table 4 Nonresidential Energy Savings Forecast

Occupancy

Year

Hotel

2016 430,000

2026 4,300,000

2030 6,020,000

2036 8,600,000

kWh/ft2

9

9

9

9

MWh/yr

3,775

247,263

451,113

870,138

ft2

1,490,000

14,900,000

20,860,000

29,800,000

5

5

5

5

MWh/yr

7,139

467,605

853,111

2,515,677

ft2

1,920,000

19,200,000

26,880,000

38,400,000

MWh/yr

10,914

714,867

1,304,223

3,385,815

ft

Other1

2

kWh/ft

Total 1

2

Other includes apartment buildings 4-stories and greater.

6 NET ENERGY IMPACT FORECAST The net overall impact of the 2015 IECC with Hawaii amendments is estimated to be a savings of 12,962 MWh in 2016; 1,083,590 MWh in 2026 (year 10); 1,991,059 MWh in 2030; and 4,702,738 MWh in 2036 (year 20). These estimates are summarized in Table 5 which illustrates the expected energy savings in residential and commercial energy buildings assuming the 2015 IECC with Hawaii amendments is adopted in 2016. Table 5 Combined Residential and Nonresidential Energy Forecast

Occupancy Residential Nonresidential Total

Task Order 1E#

Year 2016 2,048 10,914 12,962

9

2026 368,723 714,867 1,083,590

2030 686,836 1,304,223 1,991,059

2036 1,316,924 3,385,815 4,702,738

September 2015

ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST FOR THE 2015 IECC

Task Order 1E#

10

September 2015