Growing Economic Vibrancy © Ed McMahon Urban Land Institute September , 2015
South Carolina is a Great State
CHA N G ES
There two kinds of change: • Planned change
• Unplanned change
“The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself” Abraham Lincoln
What is changing? • • • • • • •
National and global economy Demographics Technology Consumer attitudes & market trends Health care Energy sources & prices The weather
Employment Changes • The US saw a 34% decline in manufacturing jobs between 1990 and 2010. • During the same period the US saw a 57% increase in professional and business service jobs, and • An 81% increase in jobs in education and health services
How will the Crash Reshape America? • “How we live, work, shop and get around will change.” • “Communities that embrace the future will prosper. Those that do not will decline.”
“Communities and regions are in a global competition to attract and retain a talented workforce. Increasingly these talented workers are choosing where they want to live first and figuring out their job situations later.”
CEO’s for Cities, Segmentation Study, 2006
Economic Development 20th Century Model • • • • • • • •
Public sector leadership Shotgun recruitment strategy Low cost positioning Cheap labor Focus on what you don’t have Quality of life unimportant Driven by transactions Key Infrastructure = Roads
21st Century Model • • • • • • • •
Public/Private Partnerships Laser recruitment strategy High value positioning Highly trained talent Focus on what you do have Quality of life critical Driven by an overall vision Key Infrastructure = Education
Business Recruitment • There are 3141 counties in the US. • There are 25,375 towns in the US. • They are all competing for a small number of new plants, factories or distribution centers.
The One Big Thing Rarely Works?
What works today? “ Successful cities and towns think small in a big way.” Roberta Brandes Gratz
Economic Development is About Choices
Should we try to recruit new industry?
Should we try to expand existing businesses?
Demographic Shifts • • • • •
Baby Boomers and Retirees – 80 million Immigrants – 40 million Millennials (18 to 32 year olds) – 85 million Single-person households – 26% 75 % of American households do not have school age children
Young People • • • • • • • •
Are getting married later or not at all Are postponing home ownership Own fewer cars and drive less Are concentrating in major metropolitan areas & cool towns Favor walkable neighborhoods Are adept with technology and social networking Are more tolerant Use social media to make buying decisions
Technology & Globalization • “The Death of Distance” • People can do business anywhere • Most new jobs are in small and medium sized businesses • Health care & education • Industrial recruitment is a small part of new economy
Capital is Footloose
Jackson Hole, Wyoming
Brandywine Funds HQ – Jackson, WY
Consumer attitudes are changing
• No new malls , since 2006 • 15% of existing malls have closed • 30% of remaining malls being repositioned • 1 Billion square feet of vacant retail space
Market Trends • “It is becoming clear that homebuilders old one-size fits all marketing and product approach will not work for buyer groups whose interests & borrowing requirements differ widely, not only from buyers of the recent past, but also from each other.” • Source: Builder Magazine, July 2009
Economic Vitals – Dimensions of Success • Talent – Smart People
• Innovation - Ability to generate new ideas • Connectivity – Places where people and goods can easily connect • Distinctiveness – Unique characteristics
Sustainable Cities Are Distinctive Cities
Distinctiveness has value! • “If you can’t differentiate yourself, you will have no competitive advantage.” • “Sameness is a minus, not a plus in today’s world.”
Distinctive = Having a Special Quality Synonyms
• • • • •
• • • • •
Unconventional Surprising Unusual Out-of-the-ordinary Unorthodox
Conventional Standard Usual Regular Ordinary
Community Character Matters! • “We take stock of a city like we take stock of a man. The clothes or appearance are the externals by which we judge.” • Mark Twain
COMMUNITY IMAGE IS CRITICAL TO ECONOMIC VITALITY AND QUALITY OF LIFE
The Official 2000 Travel Guide
Oregon: Things Look Different Here
In the New Economy – Place Matters Traditional Economy
• Product Driven • Cost Sensitive • Market Driven
• Knowledge Driven • Value Sensitive • Place Driven
• Making the sneakers
• Designing the sneakers
‘The Place is becoming more important than the product” National Association of Homebuilders 2011
“I came for the place and the jobs have followed.” Entrepreneur, PhD Bend, Oregon
Soul of the Community Study • “Communities with the highest levels of attachment to place also have the strongest economies.”
Source: Knight Foundation. 2010
What attaches people to community? • Social offerings –
such as, entertainment venues & places to meet
• Openness – how welcoming a community is to newcomers •
Community Aesethics – physical beauty and green spaces
•“If a building, a landscape or a city is not beautiful, it will not be loved, if it is not loved, it won’t be maintained and improved. In short , it won’t be sustained.” Doug Kelbaugh, Former Dean, University of Michigan, School of Architecture
The Distinctive Community • “The unique characteristics of place may be the only truly defensible source of competitive advantage for cities.” Joe Cortwright, CEO’s for Cities
Dimensions of Uniqueness • • • • • •
Anchor institutions A vital urban core Historic buildings and neighborhoods Parks and green space Arts and Culture Restaurants & Food Variety
Anchor Institutions • Large institutions, such as universities, hospitals or nonprofit organizations. • Anchors are proven economic engines. • Some anchor institutions engage with the community • Others do not.
A Vital Urban Core
Urban Cores • Urban core plays a decisive role as an icon. • They are critical as a connecting point and nerve center for a metro area. • A key asset for metropolitan prosperity
Companies Moving Downtown •
A new study by Smart Growth America and Cushman Wakefield reports that 500 American companies have either relocated to, expanded, or opened new offices in “walkable downtown locations” in the past 5 years.
247 companies moved from suburban office locations to downtown.
The average Walk Score of old locations was 52. The average Walk Score of new locations was 88
Companies Move Back Downtown
DaVita HQ’s, Denver
Companies move from suburbs to downtown LA
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
Amazon United Airlines Sara Lee Blue Cross, Blue Shield Pinnacle Airlines Quicken Loans Zurich Financial Services Gensler Living Social Zappos Devon Energy Red Hat Discovery Corp.
Amazon is moving 7000 employees into downtown Seattle
They will move into 9 new buildings and 2 historic renovations, all in a mixed use neighborhood accessible by train, bus, boat, bike or on foot.
Why Move? • To attract & retain talented workers • To build brand identity & corporate culture • To support creative collaboration • To be closer to customers & business partners • To centralize operations
The New Paradigm • The future belongs to main streets, town centers and mixed use development!
• Strip development is development for the last century!
We’re Overbuilt on the Strip • Ten fold increase in retail space from 1960-2000. • From 4 to 38 square feet per person. • US has more than double the retail space per person as Europe. • There is now more than 1 billion sq. ft. of vacant retail space (mostly in empty big box stores)
Retail space grew 5x faster than retail sales
Retail is Rediscovering Downtown
King Street, Charleston, South Carolina