Morgan T. Page

Morgan T. Page

Morgan T. Page Contact Information U.S. Geological Survey 525 S. Wilson Ave. Pasadena CA 91106 USA Voice: (626) 583-6804 E-mail: [email protected] W...

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Morgan T. Page Contact Information

U.S. Geological Survey 525 S. Wilson Ave. Pasadena CA 91106 USA

Voice: (626) 583-6804 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.its.caltech.edu/~pagem

Research Interests

I am interested in probabilistic hazard analysis and inverse problems in seismology. In particular my research has focused on statistical issues in seismology, including rigorously incorporating model uncertainty into hazard analysis, quantifying uncertainty in kinematic inversions, and analyzing nonstationarities in earthquake catalogs.

Education

University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA Advisor: Jean M. Carlson Ph.D., Physics, 2007 M.A., Physics, 2005 Grinnell College, Grinnell, Iowa USA B.A., Physics, with honors, 2002 B.A., Mathematics, 2002

Publications

Page, Morgan T. and Nicholas J. van der Elst (2018), Turing-Style Tests for UCERF3 Synthetic Catalogs, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., doi: 10.1785/0120160157 van der Elst, Nicholas J. and Morgan T. Page, (2017), Nonparametric Aftershock Forecasts Based on Similar Sequences in the Past, Seism. Res. Lett. 89, 1. doi: 10.1785/0220170155 Field, E. H., et al., A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), Seism. Res. Lett. (2017), doi: 10.1785/0220170045 Field, Edward H., Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw, and Maximilian J Werner, A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 87, 2A (2017), doi: 10.1785/0220150174 Hough, Susan E. and Morgan Page, Potentially Induced Earthquakes during the Early Twentieth Century in the Los Angeles Basin, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 106, 6 (2016), doi: 10.1785/0120160157 Page, Morgan, Nicholas van der Elst, Jeanne Hardebeck, Karen Felzer, and Andrew J. Michael, Three Ingredients for Improved Global Aftershock Forecasts: Tectonic Region, Time-Dependent Catalog Incompleteness, and Inter-Sequence Variability, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 106, 5 (2016), doi: 10.1785/0120160073 van der Elst, N. J., M. T. Page, D. A. Weiser, T. H. W. Goebel, and S. M. Hosseini, Induced Earthquake Magnitudes Are as Large as (Statistically) Expected, J. Geophys. Res. - Solid Earth, 121 (2016), doi:10.1002/2016JB012818 Mai, P. Martin, et al. The Earthquake-Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project, Seism. Res. Lett. 87, 4 (2016), doi:10.1785/0220150231

Hough, Susan E. and Morgan Page. The Petroleum Geologist and the Insurance Policy, Seism. Res. Lett. 87, 1 (2015), doi:10.1785/0220150218 Hough, Susan E. and Morgan Page. A Century of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma?, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 105, 6 (2015), doi:10.1785/0120150109 Page, Morgan, and Karen Felzer. Southern San Andreas Fault Seismicity is Consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude-Frequency Distribution, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 105, 4 (2015), doi: 10.1785/0120140340 Field, E. H., et al., Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 105, 2A (2015). doi: 10.1785/0120140093 Felzer, Karen R., Morgan T. Page, and Andrew J. Michael, Artificial Seismic Acceleration, Nat. Geosci. 8, 82-83 (2015). doi: 10.1038/ngeo2358 Page, Morgan T. and Susan E. Hough, The New Madrid Seismic Zone: Not Dead Yet, Science (2014). doi: 10.1126/science.1248215 Page, Morgan, Edward H. Field, Kevin Milner, and Peter Powers. The UCERF3 Grand Inversion: Solving for the Long-term Rate of Ruptures in a Fault System, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 104, 3 (2014). doi: 10.1785/0120130180. Also published as Grand Inversion Implementation and Testing, Appendix N to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013-1165, 97 p., California Geological Survey Special Report 228, and Southern California Earthquake Center Publication 1792 (2013), available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/. Field, E. H., et al. Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) – The Time-Independent Model, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 104, 3 (2014). doi: 10.1785/0120130164. Also published as U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013-1165, 97 p., California Geological Survey Special Report 228, and Southern California Earthquake Center Publication 1792 (2013), available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/. Milner, Kevin R., Morgan T. Page, Edward H. Field, Tom Parsons, Glenn P. Biasi, and Bruce E. Shaw, Defining the Inversion Rupture Set Using Plausibility Filters, Appendix T to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013-1165, 97 p., California Geological Survey Special Report 228, and Southern California Earthquake Center Publication 1792 (2013), available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/. Parsons, T., E. H. Field, M. T. Page, and K. Milner. Possible Earthquake Rupture Connections on Mapped California Faults Ranked by Calculated Coulomb Linking Stresses, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 102, 6 (2012). doi: 10.1785/0120100349 Page, Morgan T., David Alderson, and John Doyle. The Magnitude Distribution of Earthquakes near Southern California Faults, J. Geophys. Res. - Solid Earth. 116, B12309 (2011). doi:10.1029/2010JB007933 Hough, Susan E. and Morgan Page. Towards a Consistent Model for Strain Accrual and Release for the New Madrid, Central U.S., Seismic Zone, J. Geophys. Res. - Solid Earth. 116, B03311 (2011). doi:10.1029/2010JB007783 Field, Edward. H., and Morgan T. Page. Estimating Earthquake-Rupture Rates on a Fault or Fault System, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 101, 1 (2011). doi: 10.1785/0120100004

Cust´ odio, S., M. T. Page, and R. J. Archuleta. Constraining Earthquake Source Inversions with GPS Data 2: A Two-Step Approach to Combine Seismic and Geodetic Datasets. J. Geophys. Res. - Solid Earth. 114, B01315 (2009). doi:10.1029/2008JB005746 Page, M. T., S. Cust´ odio, R. J. Archuleta, and J. M. Carlson. Constraining Earthquake Source Inversions with GPS Data 1: Resolution Based Removal of Artifacts. J. Geophys. Res. - Solid Earth 114, B01314 (2009). doi:10.1029/2007JB005449 Ma, Shuo, Ralph J. Archuleta, and Morgan T. Page. Effects of Large-Scale Surface Topography on Ground Motions, as Demonstrated by a Study of the San Gabriel Mountains, Los Angeles, California. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 97, 6 (2007). doi: 10.1785/0120070040 Page, M. T. and J. M. Carlson. Methodologies for Earthquake Hazard Assessment: Model Uncertainty and the WGCEP-2002 Forecast. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 96, 5 (2006). doi: 10.1785/0120050195 Page, M. T., E. M. Dunham, and J. M. Carlson. Distinguishing Barriers and Asperities in NearSource Ground Motion. J. Geophys. Res. - Solid Earth 110, B11302 (2005). doi:10.1029/2005JB003736 Petry, D., et al. The TeV spectrum of H1426+428. Astrophys. J. 580, 104 (2002). astro-ph/0207506 Honors, Awards, Member, California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC), 2015-present and Service Task Leader, Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) SCEC Honorary Lecturer, 2010 Associate Editor, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2010-2013 Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellowship, 2007 Best Student Presentation Award, Seismological Society of America, 2007 Key Scientist, Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF2) National Science Foundation Graduate K-12 Education Fellowship, 2005 National Science Foundation Graduate K-12 Education Fellowship, 2004 Best Student Presentation Award, Seismological Society of America, 2004 Broida Fellowship, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2002 Eugene Cota-Robles Fellowship, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2002 Meritorious Rating, COMAP Mathematical Contest in Modeling, 2000 Invited Talks

Page, Morgan. Breaking Badly: Forecasting California Earthquakes, Sierra Nevada Aquatic Research Laboratory, 2015. Page, Morgan. Breaking Badly: Forecasting California Earthquakes, USGS Public Lecture Series, Menlo Park, 2015.

Page, Morgan. Breaking Badly: Forecasting California Earthquakes, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Los Angeles, 2015. Page, Morgan. UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California, Earthquake Research Affiliates Meeting, 2015. Page, M. T., E. H. Field, and K. R. Milner. UCERF3: Lessons Learned, SSA Annual Meeting, 2015. Page, Morgan, and Susan Hough. Evidence Against the New Madrid Long-Lived Aftershock Hypothesis, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 2014. Page, Morgan, Ned Field, and Kevin Milner. Towards a Consistent, Fault-Based Hazard Model Spanning Minutes to Centuries, 10th Joint Meeting of UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research, Sendai, Japan, 2014. Page, Morgan. UCERF3: Modeling California’s Seismic Future, SCEC Intern Seminar, University of Southern California, 2014. Page, M. T., E. H. Field, and K. R. Milner. Local Magnitude Distributions in the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), Seismological Society of America Annual Meeting, 2014. Page, Morgan, and Susan Hough. Debunking the Long-lived Aftershock Hypothesis, CEUS Earthquake Hazards Research Review and Planning Workshop, Memphis, 2014. Page, M. T., E. H. Field, and K. R. Milner. The Importance of Fault System Connectivity for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 2013. Page, Morgan. Breaking Badly: Forecasting California Earthquakes, UCLA Physics Colloquium, 2013. Page, Morgan. The UCERF3 Model, SCEC Intern Seminar, University of Southern California, 2013. Page, Morgan, Ned Field, Kevin Milner, and Peter Powers. The UCERF3 Grand Inversion, NSHMP UCERF3 Workshop, 2013. Page, Morgan, Ned Field, and Kevin Milner. The UCERF3 Inversion Methodology, Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Workshop, UCLA, 2013. Page, Morgan. Evidence for and against G-R Scaling on Faults. San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) Seismic Source Characterization Workshop, Irvine, 2013. Page, Morgan. Evidence for and against G-R Scaling on Faults. Diablo Canyon Power Plant Seismic Source Characterization Workshop, San Luis Obispo, 2012. Page, Morgan, Ned Field, and Kevin Milner. UCERF3: Grand Inversion Results. USGS NSHMP California Workshop, Newark, California, 2012. Page, Morgan. Data-Rich Transform Faults. Powell Working Group Meeting on Maximum Magnitude and Earthquake Recurrence, Fort Collins, 2012. Page, Morgan. The UCERF3 Model: How Seismic, Paleoseismic, Geodetic, and Geologic Data are Used to Solve for the Rates of Earthquakes on a Complex Fault System. SCEC Intern Seminar, University of Southern California, 2012.

Page, Morgan, Ned Field, and Kevin Milner. The Grand Inversion Preliminary Model. UCERF3 Meeting, University of Southern California, 2012. Page, Morgan, Ned Field, and Kevin Milner. A Truly Grand Inversion for Long-Term Rupture Rates: Preliminary Results using UCERF2 Ingredients. UCERF3 Meeting, Berkeley, 2011. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, Ned Field, and Kevin Milner. Evidence Against Characteristic Faults and Implications for Seismic Hazard Analysis. University of California, Santa Cruz, 2011. Page, Morgan, and Ned Field. The “Baby Grand” Inversion: Solving for Northern CA Rupture Rates. UCERF3 Meeting, Oxnard, 2011. Page, Morgan, and Karen Felzer. Evidence for the Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude Frequency Distribution on the Southern San Andreas Fault. UCERF3 Meeting, Oxnard, 2011. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, and Ned Field. The Where and Why of Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude Scaling. SCEC honorary lecture, Northwestern University, 2011. Page, Morgan, and Ned Field. Use of Deformation Models in UCERF3. UCERF3 Deformation Workshop, Golden, 2011. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, and Ned Field. The Where and Why of Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude Scaling. SCEC honorary lecture, University of California, Los Angeles, 2011. Page, Morgan, Martin Mai, Mathieu Causse, Jerg Gauser, and Danijel Schorlemmer. Source Inversion Validation (SIV): Current Progress and Future Directions. Dynamic Rupture Code Validation Workshop, 2011. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, and Ned Field. The Where and Why of Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude Scaling. SCEC honorary lecture, Princeton University, 2011. Page, Morgan, and Ned Field. Solving for the Rates of Earthquakes on a Complex Fault System: An Inverse Approach. Earth Science Department Seminar, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2010. Page, Morgan, and Ned Field. Generalized Inversion for Long-Term Rupture Rates: An Earthquake Rate Model for UCERF3. UCERF3 meeting, 2010. Page, Morgan, and Ned Field. Solving for Earthquake Rupture Rates on a Complex Fault Network. 8th Joint Meeting of UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research, Nagaoka, Japan, 2010. Page, Morgan, Susana Cust´ odio, Ralph J. Archuleta, J. M. Carlson, Martin Mai, and Danijel Schorlemmer. Quantifying Uncertainty in Earthquake Source Inversions. USGS Modeling Conference, 2010. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, Ray Weldon, Glenn Biasi, David Alderson, and John Doyle. The Case for Gutenberg-Richter Scaling on Faults. SSA Annual Meeting, 2010. Available at http://www.seismosoc.org/meetings/2010/eqdebates. Page, Morgan. Review of the September 2009 SIV Workshop. Source Inversion Validation Workshop at KAUST, Saudi Arabia, 2010. Page, Morgan, and Ned Field. Constraining the Earthquake Rate Model: The Magnitude-Frequency Distribution and Catalog Seismicity. UCERF3 Meeting, 2009.

Page, Morgan, and Ned Field. A Generalized Inverse Approach. UCERF3 Meeting, 2009. Page, Morgan, Martin Mai, and Danijel Schorlemmer. Source Inversion Validation (SIV): Past, Present, and Future. Dynamic Rupture Code Validation Workshop, 2009. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, Ray Weldon, Glenn Biasi, David Alderson, John Doyle, and Ned Field. Magnitude-frequency Statistics on a Single Fault: Gutenberg-Richter or Characteristic? U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, 2009. Page, Morgan, Angela Jayko, Anthony Guarino, Egill Hauksson, Ken Hudnut, Sue Hough, and Bob Dollar. The October 2009 Earthquake Sequence near Olancha, CA. Earthquake Research Affiliates Meeting, 2009. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, Ray Weldon, Glenn Biasi, David Alderson, John Doyle, and Ned Field. The Evidence for Gutenberg-Richter Statistics on Individual Faults. University of Southern California, 2009. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, Ray Weldon, Glenn Biasi, David Alderson, John Doyle, and Ned Field. Magnitude-frequency statistics on a single fault: Does Gutenberg-Richter scaling apply? SCEC Annual Meeting, 2009. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, Ray Weldon, Glenn Biasi, David Alderson, John Doyle, and Ned Field. Testing the Characteristic Earthquake Hypothesis. 6th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, 2009. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, Ray Weldon, Glenn Biasi, David Alderson, and John Doyle. Seismicity in Major Fault Zones in Southern California: Gutenberg-Richter or Characteristic? Tectonics Observatory Seminar, California Institute of Technology, 2009. Page, Morgan, Karen Felzer, Ray Weldon, and Glenn Biasi. The Magnitude-Frequency Distribution of the Southern San Andreas Fault: Resolving Apparent Deviations from Power-Law Behavior. Complex Systems and Condensed Matter Seminar, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2009. Page, Morgan, David Alderson, John Doyle, and Andrew Michael. Nonstationarities in the California Catalog. Post-doc Colloquium, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, 2008. Page, Morgan, Susana Cust´ odio, Ralph J. Archuleta, and J. M. Carlson. Strategies for Uncertainty Assessment in Source Inversions. Source Inversion Workshop, 2008. Page, Morgan, Susana Cust´ odio, Ralph J. Archuleta, and J. M. Carlson. GPS Inversions: What Can They Resolve? Dix Seismo Lab Seminar, California Institute of Technology, 2007. Page, Morgan, Susana Cust´ odio, Ralph J. Archuleta, and J. M. Carlson. Constraining Earthquake Source Inversions with GPS Data: Resolution Based Removal of Artifacts. U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, 2007. Page, Morgan, Susana Cust´ odio, Ralph J. Archuleta, and J. M. Carlson. Using Resolution Information to Eliminate Artifacts in Earthquake Source Inversions. University of Southern California, 2007. Page, Morgan, Susana Cust´ odio, Ralph J. Archuleta, and J. M. Carlson. Resolution of Slip from Inversions of GPS Data. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, 2007. Page, Morgan, Susana Cust´ odio, Ralph J. Archuleta, and J. M. Carlson. Resolution of GPS Data

from the 2004 Mw 6 .0 Parkfield Earthquake. 6th Joint Meeting of UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research, Tokushima, Japan, 2006. Page, Morgan, and J. M. Carlson. Quantifying Spatial Resolution and Uncertainty in Kinematic Inversions. Connections II Workshop, California Institute of Technology, 2005. Page, Morgan. Predicting the Unpredictable: A Look at Earthquakes. Condensed Matter Seminar, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2004. Research Experience

U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, California USA Research Geophysicist

2009-present

Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellow Advisor: Dr. Ned Field

2007-2009 Geophysics

University of California, Santa Barbara, Dept. of Physics, Santa Barbara, California USA Graduate Research Assistant Advisor: Dr. Jean M. Carlson

2003-2007 Geophysics

Grinnell College, Dept. of Physics, Grinnell, Iowa USA

Teaching Experience

Undergraduate Research Assistant Advisor: Dr. Charles Duke

2000-2001 Gamma-ray Astronomy

Undergraduate Research Assistant Advisor: Dr. Mark Schneider

Summer 1999 Modeling of a Low-Energy Positron Spectrometer

University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California USA Leaps Fellow

2005-2006

Santa Barbara High School Leaps Fellow

2004-2005

Santa Barbara Junior High School The Leaps Fellowship program is part of an NSF GK-12 grant to UCSB and places graduate students in 8th and 9th grade science classrooms. As a Leaps fellow I taught lessons, designed curricula and demonstrations, and ran labs at the local schools. I also helped to arrange Family Science nights, field trips, and lab tours, with the goal of better integrating local science classrooms, UCSB, and the community. Calculus tutor Grinnell College Math Lab Outreach

Lecturer to Visiting Japanese High School Students, 2015, 2017. Speaker, Caltech Summer Research Connection, 2014, 2017.

1999-2001

Lecturer, USGS Menlo Park Evening Lecture Series, 2015. Lecturer, Sierra Nevada Aquatic Research Laboratory, 2015. Lecturer, Los Angeles Army Corps of Engineers, 2015. Volunteer, Santa Monica Mountains Science Fair, 2013, 2015. Lecturer, USGS Pasadena Public Lecture Series, 2011. Speaker, Pasadena Senior Center, 2011. Keynote Speaker, Girl Scouts Family Science Festival, 2008. Co-chair and Webmaster, Women in Physics Group, UCSB, 2005-2007. Judge, Santa Barbara Junior High Science Fair, 2004, 2005, 2006. Volunteer, Science and Technology Day, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2005. Graduate Mentor, Women in Science and Engineering, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2004-2007. Coordinator, Grinnell Women in Physics Lunches, Grinnell College, 2000-2001. Volunteer, Saturday Science Outreach Program, Grinnell College, 2000-2001. Teaching Assistant, Summer Astronomy Program, Grinnell College, 2000.